Resolves YES if, before 1 January 2028, any problem in the Open Problems list has its status changed to partial or solved after public review on GitHub, and NO otherwise.
Scored forecasts must be strictly before 2027-12-31T00:00:00.000Z (UTC). Date-only closing values mean midnight UTC, not the end of that day.
Background
The Open Problems were published in October 2026, all open. A status change requires a published result that survives public review.
Why it matters
A field shows it is real when its questions start getting answers. This forecast tracks whether that has begun.
Forecasts
Latest eligible forecasts appear below. Earlier updates remain in the repository and API. Annulled questions are excluded from all Brier scores and leaderboard counts.
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Add your forecast
Forecasts are pull requests. Your handle and number are public.forecasts: list
If the list is empty (forecasts: []), replace [] with a new line and paste the entry beneath it.
Only your latest eligible forecast is scored. It must precede the closing instant, public outcome availability and the resolution decision. Dates shown here are UTC. An annulled question earns no score.
The generated timestamp is a draft, not an independent receipt. Reviewers must check the public submission history; never backdate a forecast. Resolution requires resolvedOn, outcomeKnownOn, a public HTTPS resolutionSource and a resolutionNote. Annulment uses annulled: true, outcome: null, decision time, source and reason.