Resolves YES if, before 1 January 2028, the Failure Archive contains entries for at least five different organizations that submitted or approved them in public on GitHub, and NO otherwise. Entries written about an organization without its participation don’t count.
Scored forecasts must be strictly before 2027-12-31T00:00:00.000Z (UTC). Date-only closing values mean midnight UTC, not the end of that day.
Background
The Silence About Failure is a documented condition of the charity system: publishing a failure can cost funding, so most failures go unpublished. The Failure Archive invites organizations to publish their own.
Why it matters
If organizations publish voluntarily, the incentive problem may be smaller than feared. That would be early evidence on Open Problem 9, the Failure Commons.
Forecasts
Latest eligible forecasts appear below. Earlier updates remain in the repository and API. Annulled questions are excluded from all Brier scores and leaderboard counts.
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Add your forecast
Forecasts are pull requests. Your handle and number are public.forecasts: list
If the list is empty (forecasts: []), replace [] with a new line and paste the entry beneath it.
Only your latest eligible forecast is scored. It must precede the closing instant, public outcome availability and the resolution decision. Dates shown here are UTC. An annulled question earns no score.
The generated timestamp is a draft, not an independent receipt. Reviewers must check the public submission history; never backdate a forecast. Resolution requires resolvedOn, outcomeKnownOn, a public HTTPS resolutionSource and a resolutionNote. Annulment uses annulled: true, outcome: null, decision time, source and reason.