Resolves YES if the Global Commission for the Certification of the Eradication of Poliomyelitis, or the World Health Organization on its behalf, announces that wild poliovirus type 1 has been eradicated worldwide before 1 January 2030, and NO otherwise.
Scored forecasts must be strictly before 2029-12-31T00:00:00.000Z (UTC). Date-only closing values mean midnight UTC, not the end of that day.
Background
Two of the three wild poliovirus types have been certified eradicated. Wild poliovirus type 1 still circulates in a small number of places. Certification requires several years with no detected wild cases, so a forecast here is a forecast about the end of transmission years earlier.
Why it matters
Charitology describes eradication as source-level work in health because it ends transmission. Certification of wild poliovirus type 1 would not by itself end all polio work: vaccine-derived outbreaks, surveillance and post-certification safeguards also matter. See the Historical Case Studies.
Forecasts
Latest eligible forecasts appear below. Earlier updates remain in the repository and API. Annulled questions are excluded from all Brier scores and leaderboard counts.
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Only your latest eligible forecast is scored. It must precede the closing instant, public outcome availability and the resolution decision. Dates shown here are UTC. An annulled question earns no score.
The generated timestamp is a draft, not an independent receipt. Reviewers must check the public submission history; never backdate a forecast. Resolution requires resolvedOn, outcomeKnownOn, a public HTTPS resolutionSource and a resolutionNote. Annulment uses annulled: true, outcome: null, decision time, source and reason.